2012 Commodity Calendar Resources
January - Gold & Silver
World Official Gold Holdings (in metric tons); courtesy of Gold.org
Gold production and silver production data courtesy of USGS.gov:
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2011-gold.pdf
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/mcs-2011-silve.pdf
February – Sugar & OJ
2010/2011 Crop data courtesy of USDA.gov
March - Cattle & Hogs
Production, herd size, consumption data courtesy of USDA.gov
April - Currencies
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold - https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2188rank.html
LAF Did you know? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market
May – Cotton & Rice
2010/2011 Crop data courtesy of USDA.gov
June - Corn
2010/2011 Crop data courtesy of USDA.gov
Fast Corn Fact Sponsored by GrainAnalyst.com: http://ohioline.osu.edu/agf-fact/0128.html
July – Soybean Complex
2010/2011 Crop data courtesy of USDA.gov
Fast Soybean Fact Sponsored by GrainAnalyst.com: http://www.michiganorganic.msu.edu/uploads/files/31/Reducing%20Soybean%20Harvest%20Losses.pdf ; http://www.monsanto.com/americasfarmers/Pages/us-soybean-facts.aspx
August – Wheat
2010/2011 Crop data courtesy of USDA.gov
September – Stock Indices
Domestic Equity Market Capitalization data courtesy of www.world-exchanges.org
LAF Did you know? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
October – Coffee & Cocoa
Cocoa data is courtesy of ICCO.org.
Coffee 2010/2011 Crop data courtesy of USDA.gov
November – Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Production, imports, exports & domestic consumption data courtesy of http://www.eia.gov/ and http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?product=gas&graph=consumption
LAF Did you know? http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/research/crude-oil/the-refinery-process/
December – Treasuries
Foreign ownership of US treasuries http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
LAF Did you know? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt
CommodiNews Sources:
Gold:
1 - 3/18/11 - The Producer Price Index posted its largest gain since June of 2009, climbing 1.6 percent last month. The core PPI gained 0.2 percent, a number which excludes food and energy prices. Consumer prices were 0.5 percent higher in February, and the core was 0.2 percent higher. This was roughly in line with economist expectations. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/16/great-inflation-debate-ppi-rises-sharply-cpi-tomorrow/ ; http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-prices-rise-05-in-february-2011-03-17
2. 5/6/11 - Central banks in Mexico, Russia, and Thailand bought gold for their reserves in February and March. Mexico bought 93.3 metric tons . Russia added 18.8 tons. Thailand bought 9.3 tons. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/central-banks-expand-gold-reserves-with-6-billion-in-purchases.html
3. 8/5/11 - Standard and Poor’s downgraded the US’ credit rating from AAA to AA+. - http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downgrade_rumors/index.htm?iid=EL
Silver:
4. - 9/23/11 - Analysts suggest that the price plunge in gold may have been at least partly the result of sales, "driven by margin calls," as investors sold precious metals to cover margin calls on other assets. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-23/gold-declines-more-than-100-in-new-york-on-sales-driven-by-margin-calls.html
5. 5/10/11 - Margins for silver contracts traded on the CME Group’s exchange were raised to $16,000 per contract effective May 9. This marked the fifth time margins have been raised since the beginning of April. - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/silver-margins-idUSN109799720110510
Sugar:
1. 2/18/11 - Brazil may see a 4.1 percent increase in sugarcane output for 2011/12, according to the International Sugar Organization. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/brazil-s-center-south-sugar-cane-output-may-rise-4-1-iso-says.html
2. 5/6/11 - The potential for Thailand to export a “record 7 million tons” of sugar was noted as a potential catalyst for price declines. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/sugar-falls-for-a-fifth-day-on-thai-output-china-inflation-coffee-drops.html
3. 5/13/11 - Unica reports that sugar output in the top producing area of Brazil dropped 69 percent year-over-year for mid-March through April. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-13/sugar-advances-on-plunging-production-in-main-brazil-region-coffee-gains.html
4. - 6/17/11 - New forecasts on Brazil’s sugar production put the 2011-2012 sugarcane crop down to 600.5 million metric tons from 618.6 in prior forecasts. - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/datagro-sees-brazil-sugar-crop-rebounding-2011-06-16
5. 9/23/11 - India's sugar production may reach the highest level in four years, up to 25.83 million metric tons according to the latest estimates from production areas. - http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-23/sugar-falls-as-europe-india-output-may-increase-coffee-rises.html
Orange Juice:
6. 3/11/11 - The USDA raised its production forecast for Florida’s orange crop, adding 4 million boxes to the total. - http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2011-03-10/business/os-citrus-crop-forecast-march-20110310_1_orange-crop-michael-w-sparks-florida-orange-crop-estimate
Live Cattle:
1 - 1/28/2011 - Beef supplies in the US may boost prices as “cattle herd at lowest since 1958.” The herd is at 92.211 million head, which is 1.6 percent below last year. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/u-s-cattle-herd-at-lowest-since-1958-may-send-beef-prices-to-record-high.html
2 - 4/14/2011 - High feed costs hit Texas ranchers already struggling with extreme drought conditions. - www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/Cattle-producers-hit-with-food-costs-during-deplorable-Texas-drought-119871704.html?ref=704
3 - 6/9/2011 - Livestock prices gained as corn costs rose, boosting speculation that herds would be culled and animals sold at lighter weights. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/hogs-cattle-jump-as-higher-corn-costs-may-spur-herd-liquidation.html
Lean Hogs:
4 - 2/11/11 - North Korea reported a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak according to the media. South Korea killed over 3 million head of livestock including pigs, goats, and deer, in an effort to control their outbreak. - http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=21667
5 - April, 2011 - The USDA increased the price forecast for cattle and hogs on an increase in meat exports and domestic demand. A week later, Canadian hog inventories were reported at 11.81 million head, up from 11.65 million head in 2010. - http://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/issues/story.aspx?aid=1000409216
6 - 8/18/11 - Fund selling sparked liquidation in hog markets. - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/18/markets-livestock-cme-idUSN1E77E1NF20110818
US Dollar:
1. 2/4/11 - The January jobs report disappoints with 36,000 jobs added versus forecasts for 149,000. - http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/04/news/economy/january_jobs_report/
2. April, 2011 - Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low at 0-0.25 percent level. - http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/1125620/1/.html
3. 5/3/11 - US dollar strengthens following news of the death of Osama bin Laden. - http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/americas/2011/05/03/300823/US-dollar.htm
Yen:
4. March, 2011 - A powerful earthquake rocked Japan, spawning a devastating tsunami. In the days that followed, nuclear crisis would unfold from a damaged reactor. The Yen stabilizes and then declines following intervention from the G-7. - http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1103/11/nwsm.01.html
5. 10/22/11 - Tokyo authorities may move to intervene with yen-selling following the finance minister's comments "against the strong yen." - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204777904576648593475206896.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Cotton:
1. 3/1/2011 - Rains in India caused problems for export quotas, leading to an increase in speculation that demand would outpace supplies. - http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/03/01/markets-cotton-idINL3E7E10HB20110301
Rice:
2. 2/11/11 - Floods in Sri Lanka may have destroyed rice crops, prompting an Ag minister to note that the forecasted harvest may drop from 2.75 million tons to 1.75 million tons. - http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=91893
3. 7/4/2011 - Rice prices rise on speculation that the newly elected parliament might introduce rice-buying scheme. - http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-07-04/thai-rice-may-rally-after-pro-thaksin-party-forms-government.html
4. 9/1/2011 - Reported rice stocks are 35% higher year-over-year. http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/market-report/CBOT-Updates:-Rice-declines-on-subdued-demand-25238.html
Corn:
1. 3/18/2011 - China made purchases of corn from the United States and an unnamed source says that more purchases will come. Earlier projections were calling for a low this year for Chinese sales. - http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/china-buys-us-cn_9-ar15475
3/25/2011 - Corn was boosted by US export sales which totaled 1.25 million metric tons, marking the “sixth-largest daily sale of the grain.” The sale is widely assumed to be to China. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-25/u-s-corn-export-sale-sixth-biggest-ever-may-be-for-china.html
May, 2011 - Corn plantings lagged the five-year average pace with 40 percent of the crop sown compared to 59 percent average on this date. The delays were caused by persistent wet weather in much of the Corn Belt. - http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/Record-corn-production-forecast-for-201112-121780789.html The USDA reported that export sales of corn increased in the week to May 12th, more than doubling and posting the strongest week since March. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-20/corn-futures-head-for-biggest-weekly-gain-in-seven-months-on-import-demand.html
June 2011 - The June WASDE release showed that the USDA cut its estimates for corn acres by 1.5 million. They also cut production levels by 305 million bushels which will leave stocks at the lowest levels since the mid-90s. - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/corn-futures-rise-after-usda-cuts-crop-outlook-2011-06-09?link=MW_latest_news
- This week the USDA released its annual Acreage report. Corn plantings were forecast to rise, but the actual data from the government agency showed 1.8 percent more than analysts were expecting. Farmers planted 92.282 million acres of corn, the second highest since 1944. In their grain stocks report – released the same day as the acreage numbers – the USDA said corn stockpiles through June 1 were 3.67 billion bushels. This number was 12 percent higher than analysts’ projections. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/corn-plunges-to-lowest-since-december-after-u-s-reports-acreage-increased.html
Soybeans:
1. 2/11/11 - The USDA sees Argentina’s soybean production 1 million tons lower on dryness. Brazil’s soybean production may rise on improved yields with “timely rains.” - http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/USDA-Projects-Argentina-Soybean-Production-Down-One-Million-Tonnes/3543558942
2. 3/21/11 - Heavy rains in Brazil are cited as a potential catalyst for higher soybeans prices as the weather forecaster Somar suggests wetness will pare production. Rainfall in Mato Grasso may have damaged about 800,000 tons in the top producing region. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-21/brazil-soy-output-pared-as-rain-damages-crops-somar-says-1-.html
3. 8/12/11 - According to China Daily, hog production increases will continue to fuel increases in soybean imports. - http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/business/2011-08/11/content_13092048.htm
4. 9/30/11 - The USDA Grain Stocks report showed Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2011 totaled 215 million bushels, up 42 percent from September 1, 2010. - http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-09-30-2011.pdf
Chicago Wheat/ Minneapolis Wheat:
1. February, 2011 - China struggled with drought, and analysts suggested around a third of the wheat crop could be adversely affected. By the end of the month, the Anhui province was still calling for a record crop, despite severe drought. Irrigation helped growth. - http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jZ1EZOShN_T_rWCz9CdNLOGgQLCQ?docId=5852537 ; http://english.anhuinews.com/system/2011/02/25/003786269.shtml
2. The USDA's March WASDE made modest additions to forecasts for ending stocks in grains. Highlights were higher forecasts for global wheat production (1.9 million tons,) and Brazilian corn production (2.0 million tons.) - http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
3. 3/25/11 Dryness hurt the wheat crop in Kansas with as much as 40% receiving a ‘poor condition’ rating. Recovery in India points to larger wheat harvests, bumping up global output. http://www.vcstar.com/news/2011/mar/25/drought-raising-worries-about-kansas-wheat-crop/ ; http://www.sify.com/news/indian-recovery-seen-pushing-global-wheat-output-3-4-percent-news-international-ldymOhahdhg.html
4. 5/6/11 - Inclement weather pared hopes for wheat crops across the globe. Production in Kansas suffered from severe drought. Yields in France and Poland were cut. Statistics Canada reported lower stocks. Wheat was 15.599 million MT, down from 17.104 million at the same time last year. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703859304576306790112620186.html?mod=googlenews_wsj ; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/europe-wheat-harvest-to-fall-on-drought-may-be-catastrophic-agritel-says.html ; 5. http://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/issues/story.aspx?aid=1000416057
5. 8/5/11 - Russia and Romania undercut US exports on wheat offering low prices.- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/wheat-falls-as-world-grain-offered-at-discount-to-u-s-exports.html
6. 9/16/11 WASDE showed global wheat supplies for 2011/12 projected 7.6 million tons higher mostly on larger beginning stocks in Canada and increased production for Canada, EU-27, and Ukraine. - http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
S&P/DJIA:
1, 2/25/2011 - The fourth quarter of 2010 delivered a 2.8 percent growth rate for the US economy. This figure was lower than forecasts and slower than previous rates. - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022502661.html
2. 5/6/11 - The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls added 244,000 jobs versus expectations for a gain of 185,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose from 8.8 percent to 9.0 percent. - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703992704576306843829385166.html
3. 6/3/2011 - The Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board fell to 60.8, a decline attributed to jobs and economic softness. - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-31/u-s-consumer-sentiment-unexpectedly-falls-to-six-month-low-on-job-outlook.html
4. 7/1/2011 - The parliament in Greece approved the financial controls that were part of a sweeping set of austerity measures aimed at dealing with their debt issues. International Monetary Fund is among the groups warning of trouble if the US does not do something about its debt ceiling soon. - http://www.cnbc.com/id/43577308 ; http://www.cnbc.com/id/43576782
5. 8/5/11 - Standard and Poor’s downgraded the US’ credit rating from AAA to AA+. - http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downgrade_rumors/index.htm?iid=EL
6. 10/3/2011 - European debt troubles weigh on equities, but US manufacturing data gives hope for recovery with a boost in production and hiring. - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/03/usa-economy-idUSN1E7920NX20111003
Cocoa:
1 - Early 2011 - The winner of Ivory Coast's November 2010 elections, Alassane Ouattara enacted a cocoa export ban from the African nation while incumbent Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede the presidency. The ban was not lifted until early spring. - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/27/ivorycoast-idUSLDE70Q2GG20110127
2 - 9/7/2011 - Confectionary giant Ferrero SpA said that the supplies of global cocoa should be adequate, citing a lack of potential demand growth from Europe and the US. - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904836104576556331950926712.html
Coffee:
3 - 3/25/11 - Rains threatened the coffee crop in Columbia, which had previously been reported as flowering well. - http://www.ytwhw.com/2011/0325/ANALYSIS-Colombia-rains-risk-new-jolt-for-coffee-prices.html
4 - 5/13/11 - The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) reassured the coffee markets in its monthly report, pointing out that the risk of frost in Brazil is limited since “changes in the location of Brazilian production in recent decades mean that the risk of frost has diminished considerably.” - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2006713.ece?homepage=true
5 - 9/13/11 - Ag officials in Brazil suggested that coffee trees were unlikely to produce a record crop in 2012 following stress from drought and cold weather. Conab's estimates were revised slightly lower from 43.54 million bags to 43.15 million bags. - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/drought-cold-may-hurt-brazils-2012-coffee-crop-2011-09-13
Crude Oil:
1. 2/25/11 - The International Energy Agency reported that unrest in Libya was costing up to 750,000 barrels of lost oil production per day. - http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110225-708399.html
2. 5/6/2011 - Several news sources are suggesting that OPEC may be poised to increase oil output in its forthcoming meeting. The move is expected in response to higher oil prices. - http://www.timeslive.co.za/business/article1052755.ece/Opec-might-act-soon-to-reduce-oil-prices
3. 6/10/11 - An OPEC meeting in Vienna concluded with a surprise decision to leave production levels of crude oil unchanged, after it was widely believed the group would increase oil production. The delegates were unable to reach a consensus, but Saudi Arabia is reportedly increasing production over quota despite the meeting’s outcome. - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/11/business/energy-environment/11oil.html
6/23/11 - The US and other nations agreed to release 30 million barrels of oil from Strategic Reserves in an effort to temper price increases. - http://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-tap-oil-reserves-release-30-million-barrels/story?id=13913101
4. 8/5/2011 - Forecasts for crude oil demand through to 2012 have been cut on economic concerns, revised from previous forecasts for rising demand. - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/04/us-oil-demand-idUSTRE7732B120110804
Natural Gas:
5. 1/25/11 - A colder than normal winter still leaves natural gas supplies above the five-year average. - http://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-tap-oil-reserves-release-30-million-barrels/story?id=13913101
Treasuries:
1. 2/8/2011 - The Federal Reserve's treasury purchases continue, but some analysts think the program should be scaled back as commodity price gains fuel inflation concerns. - http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/02/08/markets-bonds-idINN0835744320110208
2. 3/15/11 - Fed reiterates current policy of keeping interest rates low and continuing bond-buying program, despite threats from Euro debt, Japan's disaster, and unrest in Middle East. - http://www.washingtonpost.com/todays_paper/A%20Section/2011-03-16/A/18/14.0.1749729558_epaper.html
3. 4/11/11 - Bond buyers remain confident despite ongoing debt issues. - http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/bond-investors-shrugged-off-budget-showdown/2011/04/11/AFq6NxMD_story.html
4. 8/5/11 - Standard and Poor’s downgraded the US’ credit rating from AAA to AA+. - http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downgrade_rumors/index.htm?iid=EL
5. 10/15/2011 - Optimism tempers bond prices as troubles in Europe look contained and US retail sales boost long term outlook. - http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-15/treasury-30-year-bonds-drop-for-longest-since-january-on-europe.html